Grading Record — August 2026 Releases
Predictions frozen in: research/predictions-2026-08-13.md (committed 2026-08-08/09; rows are never edited after outcomes — all grades go here). Status: NASS Aug 12 + AMS Aug 13 + CPC Aug 13 GRADED (2026-08-18). NASS Agricultural Prices section awaits the Aug 31 release.
How to grade (from the frozen protocol)
Outcomes: HIT / NEAR (numeric: within 5% of nearest range edge; categorical: adjacent label) / MISS / NO-PRINT (segment absent from the report entirely — an ask-without-trade grades #1 MISS, not NO-PRINT). One-sided rows (#6, #13, P5) score HIT/MISS only at half weight. Report by cluster, plus interval coverage and mean absolute point error — no single accuracy %.
NASS Crop Production, Aug 12 (release: "Released August 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service" — raw file data/2026-08-18/nass/crop0826.txt, verified two ways: subagent extraction + independent regex parse of the stored TXT)
| # | Predicted (point / range) | Observed | Source line | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | CO alfalfa production 1.75M t / 1.55–2.00M | 2,244k tons | "Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay Area Harvested, Yield, and Production": Colorado ..: 620 660 3.80 3.40 2,356 2,244 | MISS (12% above the top of the range; NEAR cutoff was 2,100k) |
| P2 | CO alfalfa acres 620k / 580–660k | 660k | same line (2026 harvested-acres column) | HIT — but at the exact range edge, and the reasoning was wrong: we predicted a cut from June intentions (660k); NASS carried intentions with zero cut |
| P3 | CO alfalfa yield 2.85 / 2.60–3.10 | 3.40 t/ac | same line (2026 yield column) | MISS (NEAR cutoff 3.255) |
| P4 | CO all-hay 2.40M t / 2.15–2.70M | 3,128k tons (computed: alfalfa 2,244k + other hay 884k; report prints no per-state all-hay line) | alfalfa line above + "All Other Hay": Colorado ..: 530 520 1.60 1.70 848 884 | MISS (16% above range top; NEAR cutoff 2,835k) |
| P5 | US all-hay down y/y (direction, half wt) | Down 7.9% (123,031k → 113,271k tons) | Crop Summary: Hay, all ....tons: 2.48 2.28 123,031 113,271 | HIT (half wt) |
Context that matters for the misses: the same report has CO winter wheat production −67% (71,060k → 23,580k bu) and CO corn −24% — the drought is real, but farmers' Aug-1 reports say the irrigated alfalfa crop mostly got made. Other hay even printed UP y/y (848k → 884k). Caveat carried from the prediction file: Aug prints run high in deteriorating years (Aug 2022 printed 2,001k → final 1,769k, −12%); but even a 2022-sized revision lands ~1,975k — nowhere near our 1.5M final estimate. Under the prediction file's own grading note ("if the print lands ~1.7–1.8M and January later lands ~1.5M, both are right"), this print is evidence against the production thesis, not a timing artifact.
AMS CO Direct Hay Report, Aug 13 (release: Thu Aug 13, 2026, week ending 8/14; raw PDF+text data/2026-08-18/ams/ams_2905_co.*)
| # | Predicted | Observed | Source line | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SE 3x4 trade prints $250 / $240–260 | No commercial trade — $250 3x4 F.O.B. still an ask. Only FOB-farm alfalfa trade in the SE section: 23 t Utility/Fair 3x4 at $285 | SE section: "Alfalfa Ask: 3x4 $250.00/ton F.O.B., Covered, 1st cut"; "Utility/Fair Trade: 23 t, 3x4, $285.00, F.O.B.-Farm/Ranch" | MISS (per the frozen protocol: SE activity printed, the predicted trade didn't — ask-without-trade grades MISS, not NO-PRINT) |
| 2 | SE Premium small-lot $300 / $285–315 | Premium/Supreme stable lots traded $350 (25 t 3x4) and $380 (23 t 3x3), 2nd cut; a Good/Premium 1st-cut lot traded $300 | "Alfalfa Premium/Supreme Trade: 25 t, 3x4, $350.00/ton, F.O.B.-Stables… 23 t, 3x3, $380.00/ton" | MISS — above range (NEAR cutoff $331). The like-for-like channel (Prem/Supreme stables, $300–310 on Jul 30) blew through the top by $40–70 |
| 3 | NE CO dairy trades $305 / $290–320 | No dairy trades printed | "No comparable trades on feedlot and dairy markets, but prices remain firm." | NO-PRINT |
| 4 | NE new-crop offers $235 / $225–245 | No per-ton new-crop offer stack this report (NE asks printed per-bale, F.O.B.-Retail only) | NE section: "3x4 $325/bale, 4x4 $300/bale F.O.B.-Retail" | NO-PRINT |
| 5 | Volume 3,000 t / 1,500–4,500 | 1,306 tons (vs 2,415 last report, 2,734 last year) | "Hay 1,306 tons this week" | MISS — below range (NEAR cutoff 1,425) |
| 6 | Straw ≥$150 (half wt) | Zero straw tonnage traded; no per-ton straw quote (only a $7.00/bale small-square retail ask) | Straw section, 0 tons | NO-PRINT |
| 7 | Demand "Good to Very Good" | "Demand Good to Very Good all markets of new crop hay" | narrative, first paragraph | HIT (verbatim) |
| 8 | D3–D4 cited 45–55% / 40–60% | 49.45% | "49.45% of the state falls in Extreme-Exceptional drought (D3-D4)" | HIT |
| 9 | Feedlot-scale contract $240 del. / $230–250 (if prints) | 800 t Fair/Good 4x4 at $275.00/ton Delivered-Feedlot (NE section, 1st cut) | "Feedlot trade: 800 tons Alfalfa Fair/Good, 4x4, $275.00/ton Delivered-Feedlot" | MISS — above range (NEAR cutoff $262.50). The feedlot benchmark has moved $225 (June) → $275 (Aug) |
Single-target note (audit commitment #1): the month's grading target — a completed SE Colorado FOB-farm commercial alfalfa trade ≥100 tons — did not print. August is UNOBSERVABLE on the primary target; the nearest large commercial print is the NE 800-ton lot at $275 delivered.
CPC ENSO Discussion, Aug 13 (release: "issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS — 13 August 2026"; snapshots in data/2026-08-18/enso/)
| # | Predicted | Observed | Source line | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Advisory continues | El Niño Advisory continues | "ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory" | HIT |
| 11 | Niño-3.4 +1.4 / +1.2–1.6 | +1.4°C (July monthly index, the value the discussion cites) | "The July Niño index values were +1.4°C in Niño-3.4" | HIT — with a metric caveat: the prediction said "weekly"; the discussion cites the monthly index. The raw weekly OISST anomaly is +2.7°C (wksst9120.for, week of 8/12) and the relative (RONI-style) weekly is 1.8°C — on either weekly metric the event is running hotter than our range |
| 12 | Very strong OND 85% / 78–92% | ">90%" in the discussion; the OND bar in the Aug 17 slides reads ~95% | "greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27"; new headline: "a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950" | NEAR (~95% is above our 92% top, inside the 5% NEAR cutoff of 96.6; miss direction = event stronger than predicted) |
| 13 | Spring persistence ≥95% (HIT only if ≥90%; half wt) | ~82% for MAM 2027 (JFM ~100%, FMA ~97%) | CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook chart (slides updated 13 Aug); discussion text still says "expected to persist through Northern Hemisphere spring 2027" | MISS (half wt) — spring persistence odds slipped from IRI's July 94% to ~82%; the qualitative statement held but the quantitative bar didn't |
NASS Agricultural Prices, Aug 31 (release: __________)
| # | Predicted | Observed | Source line | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CO alfalfa Jul $220 / $212–230 | |||
| 15 | CO all-hay Jul $217 / $209–228 | |||
| 16 | KS alfalfa Jul $140 / $130–155 |
Summary (graded 2026-08-18; #14–16 pending the Aug 31 NASS Agricultural Prices release)
- Cluster A (economically central: 1, 9, 14, P1): 0 for 3 graded (#14 pending). #1 MISS (the $250 ask still hasn't converted to a commercial trade), #9 MISS high ($275 delivered vs our $230–250), P1 MISS high on supply (2,244k-ton print vs our 1.55–2.00M range).
- Cluster B (channel spreads: 2, 3, 4, 16): 0 for 1 graded, 2 NO-PRINT, #16 pending. The one gradeable row (#2) missed $40–70 to the high side.
- Cluster C (regime checks: 5–8, 10–13, 15, P2–P5): 5 hits + 1 NEAR of 9 graded (#7, #8, #10, #11, P2, near on #12; misses on #5 volume-low, #13 half-wt, P3, P4; #6 NO-PRINT; #15 pending). The regime/narrative rows keep verifying; the hard numbers don't.
- Interval coverage: 3 of 10 two-sided numeric ranges contained the outcome (+1 NEAR). After four months of "bands held," the first fully pre-registered, exact-source grading cycle came in at 3/10 — the independent audit's overclaiming critique (research/11) is now empirically confirmed on our own scorecard.
- Mean absolute point error: price rows $50/ton (#2: $65 off; #9: $35 off — both misses HIGH); production rows P1 +494k tons (+28%), P3 +0.55 t/ac, P4 +884k tons; volume −1,694 t (−57%).
- What the misses say about the model: two separate stories broke against us in opposite directions. (1) Supply: farmers told NASS the irrigated alfalfa crop mostly got made — for the Aug-1 print to be right, the Ark Valley + West Slope together would have to be producing ~89% of normal, versus the 30–55% our regional decomposition assumed. Either NASS revises down historically hard (2022's record Aug→final cut was −12%, which would still leave ~1,975k), or our 1.5M-ton estimate is materially too low. We now think the latter is more likely and revise the working estimate to ~1.95M tons (−17%) in research/12 — the frozen 1.5M row still gets graded as-is on Jan 12, 2027. (2) Price: every gradeable price row missed to the HIGH side — the third consecutive month demand-side surprises broke bullish. More hay than we thought statewide, stronger prices than we predicted locally: the market is demand-led and quality-segmented (dryland grass failure is pushing ruminant demand into alfalfa; NE reports native grass hay 30–50% short of normal), and the state average masks the regional bifurcation. (3) The prediction exercise also mistook AMS coverage for market state — volume collapsed to 1,306 t and two whole channels didn't print, which is thin-report risk we knew about and under-weighted.