Monthly price forecasts for Southeast Colorado premium alfalfa ($/ton, ex-stack, lower Arkansas Valley), built from USDA data, snowpack and reservoir records, ditch-company diversions, and surveyed cash markets in surrounding states. Forecasts are frozen at publication and graded in public as data comes out — see methods and grading rules.

Hay prices since January

See all graphs: local prices, our estimates, and forecast errors.

Market briefing — from the September 2026 Hay Report (September 19, 2026)

The price today

Nowcast for SE Colorado Good/Premium commercial hay: $270/ton FOB-farm (Good ~$265), ±$65. Down $30 from Aug 27. (Corrected same day from $280 after an independent review: a 380-ton Oklahoma Good/Premium 4x4 lot at $170 FOB had been left out of the comparables, and a "$222 export netback" was withdrawn. Details in the report's correction box and research/18.)

What just happened

The Sep 10 Colorado report carried no Southeast farm-gate alfalfa trade. We rebuilt the Colorado report archive back to July 2020 from USDA's file server (242 reports) and found the grading target — a SE FOB-farm Good-or-better large-square trade of 100 tons or more — has printed six times in six years. The August 27 report's $325 lot (88 tons) is tied for the highest Southeast print in that retrieved record. The biggest commercial Colorado trade of the year, 2,000 tons of Good at $260 FOB-farm, came in $65 under it. Landed comparables run $211 (Oklahoma) to $336 (Nebraska); the nowcast is the tonnage-weighted origin comparable set ($270 Good/Premium, $269 Good, large squares only). Every surrounding state is importing: Oklahoma "cattle producers are calling all hay producers," Kansas "inventories began to diminish," Nebraska semis "heading west… not usual for September."

Eleven pre-registered rows graded: 6 of 16 ranges have now contained the outcome (+2 NEAR). The Colorado state-price rows hit within $5; Kansas's state average moved $1 while Kansas cash traded $200–260 (the state average is a different, lower-quality series, not a lagging one); the local "prints again" and volume rows missed; ENSO went 3-for-3 with the metric pinned in advance. The calibration script tried to cut the price floor to ±$41 after three easy hits — the ratchet rule is now enforced in code and the floor stays ±$65.

The forecast

Sep $270 → Nov–Jan $285 → Feb $280 → Jun $240, every band ±$65, confidence LOW; the winter lift is a discretionary +6% (Northeast large-tonnage base rate), recorded as an exception to the indicator policy. The 2022–23 local rows are consistent with a Nov–Dec peak but mix grades, crop ages and lot sizes, so no peak is claimed; the statewide average remains the wrong series to time a local sale on. Downside scenario now explicit: the Sep 17 drought outlook calls for improvement or removal across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by year-end — El Niño rain putting cattle on wheat pasture would end the pull that is holding Colorado hay up.

Exit rules stand: Dec 1 snowpack at/above normal → sell by Christmas; never hold past Feb 1, 2027. For a seller: the stack's grade is not established; untested carryover is worth about $220–260 FOB today. Sell a meaningful portion on firm bids in or above that range; plan to be done by mid-December as risk management. $180 is below every ≥500-ton comparable but not below every trade; judge it against real competing bids after a forage test.

What we're watching

Sep 24: Colorado report (we say no SE trade; base rate 25% any size, 2.5% at the target). Sep 29: USDA August prices grade rows #17–19 by script (we said $235 Colorado alfalfa; cash is $260–325). Oct 8–9: CPC ENSO, Colorado report, and the October 1 hay re-forecast. Twelve new predictions (#28–39) are frozen with source specs.

Reports

Next checkpoint — August 12, 2026: USDA's first official 2026 hay production forecast. Our number is pre-registered. Background: research library.