Monthly price forecasts for Southeast Colorado Good/Premium alfalfa ($/ton at origin, lower Arkansas Valley), built from USDA data, snowpack and reservoir records, ditch-company diversions, and surveyed cash markets in surrounding states. Forecasts are frozen at publication and graded in public as data comes out — see methods and grading rules.
Hay prices since January
See all graphs: local prices, our estimates, and forecast errors.
Market briefing — from the October 2026 Hay Report (October 2, 2026)
The price today
| Market (completed sales of 100+ tons, large squares, priced at origin) | Price ($/ton) |
|---|---|
| SE Colorado, Good-or-better, 100+ t | no sale printed (happens in ~2.5% of reports) |
| SE Colorado, 25 t Fair, weedy, 3rd cut (Sep 24) | $250 — the only Colorado per-ton alfalfa sale in the report |
| W Nebraska, 700 t Good/Premium 3x4 (Sep 24) | $291 (same lot size was $309 on Sep 10) |
| E Wyoming, 500 t Good/Premium 3x4 (Oct 1) | $330 |
| NE Colorado, 2,000 t Good 3x4 (Sep 10) | $260 |
| NW Oklahoma, 380 t Good/Premium 4x4 (Sep 18) | $170 — now only an asking price (Oct 2) |
| Colorado state average, all qualities (USDA, August) | $235 — exactly our pre-registered call |
Estimate for SE Colorado Good/Premium large squares: $275/ton at origin (Good ~$270), range $210–340, LOW confidence. Up $5 from Sep 19, which is noise. Built from 19 regional sales of 100+ tons of Good-or-better large squares; eight ways of averaging them give $271–308, middle $277 (after Oklahoma's Oct 2 report). The biggest open question is geography: northern sales (Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming) average $283, Kansas and Oklahoma $239.
What just happened
The weather flipped. Lamar Airport got 4.50" of rain in September (normal 1.03"; 2.17" of it on Sep 30) and 0.96" more on Oct 1. Bent County went from 61% severe drought on Sep 8 to none on the Sep 29 map. The Fort Lyon Canal, dry Sep 11–20, came back under its own 1884 water right and ran 405 cfs on Oct 1. Oklahoma and Texas went the other way: drought worse, ranchers feeding hay already. Nebraska and Wyoming buyers cooled to "moderate"; Colorado demand stayed "Good to Very Good"; Oklahoma's Oct 2 report says demand "continues to be high" and the state is "still seeking rain."
Four pre-registered rows graded: USDA's August prices hit all three ranges (Colorado alfalfa $235, our point exactly); we missed a call that no Southeast farm sale would print. 9 of 19 ranges have now contained the outcome (+2 NEAR).
The forecast
Oct $275 → Nov–Jan $280 → Feb $275 → Jun $235, every band ±$65, confidence LOW. The usual winter lift (+6% in 5 of 6 past seasons for big Northeast lots) is cut to about +2% because local pasture is recovering; that cut is driven by weather, which has no measured skill in our record, so it is judgment, logged as an exception.
What we're watching
Oct 8: Colorado report + CPC El Niño discussion. Oct 9: USDA's October hay re-forecast. Oct 30: USDA September prices. Six new predictions (#40–45) are frozen for November. An outside review found 17 problems in our first draft; all were fixed before publishing, and the review is published unedited.
Reports
| Date | Report | Scorecard |
|---|---|---|
| October 2, 2026 | October 2026 Hay Report The price held at about $275 (range $210–340): eight ways of averaging 19 regional sales give $271–308 (middle $277, after Oklahoma's Oct 2 report). The weather flipped — 4.5 inches of September rain at Lamar, Bent County out of severe drought, the Fort Lyon Canal back on — while Oklahoma and Texas got drier. USDA's August Colorado price printed exactly our $235. An outside review found 17 problems in the first draft; all fixed before publication, review published unedited, except private business details removed. Standing record 9 of 19 (+2 NEAR). | — |
| September 19, 2026 | September 2026 Hay Report The target price didn't print — and a 242-report local ledger says it prints ~2.5% of the time. Spot revised DOWN to $270 (the year's largest Colorado trade was 2,000 t at $260; Oklahoma sold 380 t of Good/Premium at $170). Corrected the same day after an independent review: a claimed $250–260 floor, a $222 netback and a Nov–Dec peak claim were withdrawn. Eleven rows graded: standing record 6 of 16 (+2 NEAR). | RETRO |
| August 27, 2026 | Late-August 2026 Hay Report First SE farm-gate trade of the grading era: 88 t at $325 FOB-farm — real, but under the 100-ton observability bar and not proof the $250 ask converted. Two independent analyses cross-audited and merged: commercial hay ~$295–310 now, winter plateau $300–335, all bands the full ±$65. Anchor-drag bias named; freight distances and a rainfall-pipeline defect fixed. | RETRO |
| August 18, 2026 | Mid-August 2026 Hay Report The pre-registered predictions graded: 2 of 10 ranges held (corrected same day from 3 — see the erratum). Production estimate revised 1.5M → ~1.95M tons; prices ran hotter than predicted anyway. Peak scenario trims to ~$260. | — |
| August 8, 2026 | August 2026 Hay Report Forecast raised $5-10; Jan 2027 peak scenario ~$265. Colorado 2026 crop est. ~1.5M tons (-36%). | RETRO |
| July 11, 2026 | July 2026 Hay Report April forecast graded (direction + magnitude right, demand side wrong); market printed $225 contract on the nose; winter peak ~$255 Jan-Feb. | RETRO |
| April 18, 2026 | April 2026 Forecast & Watchlist The first report: an 18-month price path for SE Colorado premium alfalfa and the signals watchlist. | RETRO |
Next checkpoint — October 5, 2026: CPC weekly SST file (30SEP line). Our calls are pre-registered. Background: research library.