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Monthly price forecasts for Southeast Colorado premium alfalfa ($/ton, ex-stack, lower Arkansas Valley), built from USDA data, snowpack and reservoir records, ditch-company diversions, and surveyed cash markets in surrounding states. Forecasts are frozen at publication and graded in public as data comes out — see methods and grading rules.

Market briefing — from the August 2026 Hay Report (August 8, 2026)

The price today

Why the price is what it is

• The worst water year on record in the lower Arkansas Valley. Fort Lyon Canal near 0 cfs most of July, zero Fry-Ark allocation, John Martin Reservoir at ~6.6% of pool. We estimate Colorado's 2026 alfalfa crop at ~1.5 million tons, down ~36%, on top of May 1 stocks already down 32%.
• The price is pinned between trucks. The floor is what Kansas/Nebraska hay costs landed here — and Kansas cash grinding hay is up +$50/ton since June to $200–210. The ceiling is what dairies can import New Mexico or SW Kansas dairy hay for (~$250–280 landed), and $17 milk keeps them from chasing much past it.
• Demand came back. Oklahoma re-dried to 60% drought coverage, diesel rebounded 17%, and every surrounding state repriced upward in the last month.

The forecast

Full 17-month grid with confidence levels is in the August report. How much to trust it: these are scenario midpoints, not calibrated predictions — an independent audit of this project puts the honest six-month error at roughly $30/ton on average and ~$47 at the 80th percentile, and rates "January is actually the peak, near $265" at only 20–30% likely. The direction (strength into winter) is better supported than any single month's number.

What to watch

1. Aug 12 — USDA's first official 2026 hay production number. Our call is pre-registered: a ~1.75M-ton print, above our 1.5M final estimate because August prints run high in deteriorating years.
2. August rain — over 6" combined at Lamar + Las Animas would soften the fall; under 3" hardens the squeeze.
3. Kansas and Nebraska cash prices — they set the floor under SE Colorado feedlot hay.
4. Dec 1 snowpack — at or above normal means sell remaining stacks by Christmas. A very strong El Niño is near-certain this winter, but whether that reliably delivers Arkansas-basin snowpack is unproven — treat the reading as the decision, not the El Niño odds.
5. Feb 1 snowpack — never hold hay past this reading.

Reports

Next checkpoint — August 12, 2026: USDA's first official 2026 hay production forecast. Our number is pre-registered. Background: research library.

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