Retro: September 2026 Hay Report
Grading: IN PROGRESS — 1 of 12 rows graded Oct 2, 2026 (Sep 24 AMS); the rest grade Oct 8 – Oct 30 — original report: September 2026 Hay Report
Status: 1 of 12 rows graded. Rows #28–39 were frozen and committed on Sep 19 with machine-readable source specs; scores are computed from the ledger by scripts/scorecard.py, never typed. The rest grade on Oct 8 (Colorado report, CPC El Niño), Oct 9 (hay re-forecast), Oct 22 (Colorado report) and Oct 30 (USDA September prices).
Results so far (graded October 2, 2026)
AMS Colorado Direct Hay Report, Sep 24
| Predicted | Observed | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| No Southeast per-ton farm sale of alfalfa, any size (NO) | One: 25 tons of Fair, weedy, third-cut 3x4 at $250 FOB-farm | MISS |
The sale is too small and too low-grade to be the grading target (a Good-or-better large-square sale of 100+ tons), but it is a real Southeast farm price, and it came in above last year's local Good-grade sales ($125–140).
Partial windows, not yet graded: no Southeast 100-ton Good-or-better sale on Sep 24 (#29, continues Oct 8); no Colorado 500-ton farm alfalfa sale (#30; the 4,320 tons that week were millet); no Northeast dairy alfalfa line (#31); demand "Good to Very Good" (#32, first half).
Interval coverage: 9 of 19 two-sided numeric ranges contained the outcome (+2 NEAR), standing record. Row #28 is categorical and doesn't enter that count.
The local estimate
The September 19 estimate was $270 for Southeast Good/Premium large squares at origin. No qualifying local sale printed, so it can't be graded. The regional sales since then put the same estimate at $275 (October 2 report).