Research
Background the monthly reports stand on.
| SE Colorado Hay Price Primer What a ton of premium alfalfa costs, bale-weight math, and how quality grades map to price. |
| Irrigation Water in the Lower Arkansas Valley How the Fort Lyon Canal, Fry-Ark Project, and John Martin Reservoir actually deliver (or don't deliver) water. |
| Snowpack & Runoff, Water Year 2026 Why 2026 is the worst water year on record for the lower Ark, and what 2002 teaches about hay prices in a drought. |
| Water Rights Primer Prior appropriation, mutual ditch companies, and the compact call — the plumbing behind every price in these reports. |
| Pre-Registered Predictions — Aug 12 USDA Print Written down BEFORE the Aug 12, 2026 USDA Crop Production report, so the grading can't be fudged. |
| Independent Forecast Audit — August 2026 An outside audit of this project: the facts check out, the precision doesn't. Where we overclaim, the auditor's own confidence table, and the fixes we're adopting. |