SE Colorado Hay Price Primer
Captured: 2026-04-18. Re-run scripts for fresh numbers.
Bale sizes and what "v large" means
Commercial large-square formats:
| Nickname | Dimensions | Typical alfalfa weight |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-square / "3-string equivalent" | 3x3x8 | 750–900 lb |
| Large square | 3x4x8 | 1,000–1,400 lb |
| "Very large" / big square | 4x4x8 | 1,500–1,800 lb |
In SE Colorado (McClave, Lamar, Rocky Ford, La Junta), the dominant commercial formats are 3x4x8 and 4x4x8 — 3x3 is less common in export/feedlot trade. "V large" almost certainly means 4x4x8, ~1,750 lb, with 1,600 lb as a conservative floor.
This is the single most important number in the deal. Confirm with the seller before buying. A 200-lb swing on the bale weight moves $/ton by ~$25–30.
$/bale → $/ton conversion
Using 4x4x8 @ 1,750 lb (0.875 ton):
- $170/bale ≈ $194/ton
- $225/bale ≈ $257/ton
Full sensitivity table:
| Bale weight | $170/bale → $/ton | $225/bale → $/ton |
|---|---|---|
| 3x4x8 @ 1,200 lb | $283 | $375 |
| 4x4x8 @ 1,600 lb | $213 | $281 |
| 4x4x8 @ 1,750 lb | $194 | $257 |
| 4x4x8 @ 1,800 lb | $189 | $250 |
Current USDA market (April 2026)
USDA AMS Colorado Direct Hay Report (report 2905), most recent at time of writing, April 9, 2026:
- Premium large-square alfalfa: ~$180–$200/ton
- Good large-square alfalfa: ~$140–$160/ton
- Fair large-square alfalfa: ~$125–$140/ton
- Grinder alfalfa (3x4, FOB): historically ~$150/ton
- Grinder alfalfa (4x4, delivered): ~$115/ton
- Market tone: "Trade light on moderate to good demand; prices mostly steady on horse hay trades." Feedlot/dairy demand noted as firming.
Retail horse hay statewide (February 2026 reporting): $220–$260/ton — not directly comparable since retail adds markup and storage, but bounds the upper end.
Where the deal sits
- $170/bale (buyer's offer) ≈ $194/ton — top of Good / bottom of Premium. Reasonable for mid-grade hay, light on quality premium.
- $225/bale (seller's ask) ≈ $257/ton — above current Premium, deep into retail-equivalent territory. Justified only if (a) the hay is genuinely Supreme (dairy-grade, <27 ADF), (b) supply is expected to tighten materially, or (c) both.
Given the 2026 water outlook (see 03-snowpack-runoff-2026.md), (b) is likely. Hay today at $257/ton may look cheap by August.
Historical context — was fall 2025 really cheaper?
Yes, the seller's "lower last fall because of rain" framing is accurate:
- National all-hay average price fell from ~$288/ton (April 2023) → $164/ton (November 2024) → ~$171/ton average in 2025.
- Alfalfa peaked May 2025 at $191/ton, dipped to $166/ton in August 2025.
- Western alfalfa 2025 average: $180/ton (down $5 from 2024).
- 2025 had a wet spring and adequate summer rain across much of the West, producing good first cuttings and filling inventory; fall 2025 was the softest part of the curve.
The 2026 turn:
- Arkansas Basin snowpack 11% of median (late March 2026).
- <50% of average forecast runoff at most sites.
- Gov. Polis activated Drought Task Force on 2026-03-16.
- Market is now re-pricing upward.
Key price drivers (SE Colorado specifically)
- Arkansas River water supply — direct hit to local hay yield.
- Drought / Palmer index — 31%+ of CO in severe drought, vs 7% a year ago.
- Export demand — weak (China demand down sharply) — the one counterweight.
- Regional pull — TX Panhandle and NM dairies are the natural buyers via I-70 / US-50 / US-287.
- Alfalfa vs. grass premium — grass typically $20–$40/ton below Premium alfalfa.
- Cutting quality — Supreme (<27 ADF) commands $40–$60/ton over Good.
Crawlable data sources
- Direct PDF (always latest): https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2905.pdf
- HTML viewer: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2905
- Legacy text (may be stale): https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/gl_gr310.txt
- Brush CO monthly auction: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3627.pdf
- Fort Collins Centennial auction: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3679.pdf
- MMN API (recommended): https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api — free API key, slug_id=2905
- USDA/Cornell archive: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp37s
- State-by-state roundups: https://hpj.com/category/markets/hay/ and https://hayandforage.com/articles.sec-7-1-Markets.html
Caveats
- The legacy
gl_gr310.txtURL has returned stale 2020 content in caches — always cross-check the PDF's dateline. - Retail auction prices are not equivalent to FOB-stack prices in the USDA weekly — the deal here ($170–$225) sits between FOB-stack Premium and retail, exactly where a well-located direct-from-grower deal should land.
- Prices change fast. Re-run
scripts/fetch_hay_report.shbefore making any offer.