Hay prices and forecast checks
As of October 2, 2026. All prices are dollars per short ton.
Southeast Colorado since January
The dots below are reported alfalfa prices. In the statewide panel, months USDA has not yet released carry our own frozen estimates as open points, so the chart never goes blank where we have made a call. Different grades and sale terms are shown separately. We do not have a continuous local price series: only 9 2026 reports are saved. January–March and May have no report coverage; several saved reports have no Southeast per-ton alfalfa quote. Gaps do not mean no hay sold.
USDA's latest statewide alfalfa price is $235 (August). Our statewide estimates for months not yet released: $240 for September 2026 ($210–270, grades late Oct), $245 for October 2026 ($210–280, grades late Nov), low confidence. The latest local commercial alfalfa estimate is a separate $275/ton (Good/Premium large squares, at origin).
Our estimates versus real local sales
3 Southeast farm sales printed since August: $285/ton for 23 tons of Utility/Fair (Aug 13), $325/ton for 88 tons of Good/Premium (Aug 27), $250/ton for 25 tons of Fair (Sep 24). None reaches the 100-ton grading threshold.
Where we can measure forecast errors
Our statistical model predicts Colorado statewide all hay, a separate series. Compare it with the same USDA series. Using the last forecast saved before each month began, the model was low in every one of the 4 months we can score. Average absolute error: $35.6/ton.
| Month | Forecast issued | Forecast | Actual | Forecast minus actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 2026-04-18 | $162.9 | $189 | $-26.1 |
| June | 2026-05-14 | $172 | $208 | $-36.0 |
| July | 2026-05-14 | $180 | $222 | $-42.0 |
| August | 2026-07-11 | $192.7 | $231 | $-38.3 |
The forecasts have different lead times. This small sample does not establish model reliability, but a model that is low every month is biased, and we do not use its forward path for the local price. Actuals use the saved USDA series available as of October 2. Forecasts made during or after the target month are excluded.
Local observations behind the graph
Dates below are report dates, not exact transaction dates. Repeated asks and contracts may refer to the same lot. No per-bale quotes were converted to dollars per ton.
| Report date | Grade | Bale | Tons | $/ton | Terms | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Ungraded | Large Square 4x4 | 2000 | $225 | Delivered-Feedlot | Contract (Trade) |
| 2026-06-04 | Premium | Medium Square 3x3 | 23 | $270 | F.O.B.-Stables | Trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Ungraded | Large Square 3x4 | — | $250 | F.O.B. | Ask |
| 2026-07-02 | Ungraded | Large Square 4x4 | 2000 | $225 | Delivered-Feedlot | Contract (Trade) |
| 2026-07-16 | Ungraded | Large Square 3x4 | — | $250 | F.O.B. | Ask |
| 2026-07-30 | Ungraded | Large Square 3x4 | — | $250 | F.O.B. | Ask |
| 2026-07-30 | Good/Premium | Large Square 3x4 | 25 | $300 | F.O.B.-Stables | Trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Ungraded | Large Square 3x4 | — | $250 | F.O.B. | Ask |
| 2026-08-13 | Premium/Supreme | Large Square 3x4 | 25 | $350 | F.O.B.-Stables | Trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Premium/Supreme | Medium Square 3x3 | 23 | $380 | F.O.B.-Stables | Trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Good/Premium | Large Square 3x4 | 25 | $300 | F.O.B.-Stables | Trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Utility/Fair | Large Square 3x4 | 23 | $285 | F.O.B.-Farm/Ranch | Trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Good/Premium | Large Square 3x4 | 88 | $325 | F.O.B.-Farm/Ranch | Trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Fair | Large Square 3x4 | 25 | $250 | F.O.B.-Farm/Ranch | Trade |
Saved report dates: 2026-04-09, 2026-06-04, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-16, 2026-07-30, 2026-08-13, 2026-08-27, 2026-09-10, 2026-09-24.
Sources and older graphs
These charts use saved USDA AMS Colorado Hay Report 2905 observations and USDA NASS Agricultural Prices. The AMS link is a rolling report, not a permanent copy of every date. The original dated source references and the numbers plotted are in the chart data download.
The earlier graphs still exist. They were linked from old reports, which made them hard to find. These are frozen April views, not current forecasts:
- April price history and forecast
- April model versus adjusted forecast
- April input anomalies
- April water versus price history
The new graphs preserve old estimates and add observed prices separately, so later revisions cannot erase earlier misses.