Southeast Colorado alfalfa price forecasts, graded in public.
Pre-Registered Predictions — October 2026 Releases
Written: 2026-09-19 (frozen before every release it targets; the commit is the tamper-evidence). Grade against the AMS CO Direct Hay Reports of Sep 24, Oct 8, Oct 22; the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of Oct 8; NASS Crop Production Oct 9; NASS Agricultural Prices Oct 30 (September prices). Context: research/17. Rows #17–19 (NASS August prices, Sep 29) were frozen 2026-08-27 and are unchanged.
Design changes this cycle (L11): the local target prints in ~2.5% of reports, so local rows are categorical with the base rate stated, or conditional on a large print anywhere in Colorado. Weekly AMS volume is dropped (MAE 3,847 t). State-benchmark rows use the new state_price_usd_ton family at ±$30 (2× the worst measured state-row error, vs vintage-backtest h1 $6 / h3 $14); local price rows keep the ±$65 floor. Each numeric row records its mechanical anchor and the judgment adjustment.
AMS Colorado Direct Hay Report — Sep 24, Oct 8, Oct 22
#
Cluster
Item
Anchor / base rate
Adj
Point
Range
Reasoning
28
A
SE CO FOB-farm per-ton alfalfa trade of ANY size prints in the Sep 24 report
printed in 2 of 8 2026 reports (25%)
—
NO
categorical
base rate; nothing in the Sep 10 SE section but a per-bale ask
29
A
SE CO FOB-farm Good–Supreme large-square alfalfa trade ≥100 t prints in Sep 24 or Oct 8
6 of 242 reports (2.5%)
—
NO
categorical
HIT if neither report has one; the 2022 analog's 1,000-t lot printed Nov 17
30
A
IF any CO region (non-organic) prints a FOB-farm/ranch per-ton alfalfa trade ≥500 t in Sep 24/Oct 8/Oct 22: tonnage-weighted $/ton across all such rows
$260 (Sep 10 NE 2,000 t Good)
+10
$270
$205–335
Good-grade blocks dominate large lots; G/P blocks would print $290–310; NO-PRINT if none
31
B
IF a NE CO per-ton alfalfa trade with 'Dairy' in Freight/Use prints in those three reports: tonnage-weighted $/ton
$335 (Aug 27 1,000 t delivered)
−20
$315
$250–380
Class III −$1.20 since Aug 27; NO-PRINT if none
32
C
Demand wording at least "Good" in BOTH Sep 24 and Oct 8
last 5 reports "Good to Very Good"
—
YES
categorical
NEAR if one report says "Moderate to Good"
NASS Agricultural Prices, Oct 30 (September prices) — family state_price_usd_ton
#
Cluster
Item
Anchor
Adj
Point
Range
Reasoning
33
A
CO alfalfa, September (state avg)
$225 (Jul) + rising-analog +10 = $235
+5
$240
$210–270
2018/2022 analogs +10 by Sep; cash complex $260–330 argues for the top half; Kansas says the state avg does not chase cash
34
C
CO all-hay, September
$222 + 10 = $232
+5
$237
$207–267
tracks alfalfa −$3
35
B
KS alfalfa, September
$126 (Jul persistence)
+4
$130
$100–160
three months of $200–260 cash have moved the KS state avg $1
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, Oct 8
#
Cluster
Item
Anchor
Adj
Point
Range
Reasoning
36
C
Advisory status
El Niño Advisory
—
continues
categorical
—
37
C
Latest weekly traditional Niño-3.4 in wksst9120.for at discussion time = the 30SEP2026 line (posted Mon Oct 5). NOT relative, NOT monthly.
+2.9 (09SEP)
+0.2
+3.1°C
+1.8 to +4.4
events strengthen into Nov–Dec; ±1.3 is the family floor
38
C
"Historic event" probability (OND RONI ≥ +2.5 exceeds all El Niños since 1950) as stated
75% (Sep 10)
0
75%
65–85%
RONI outlook OND median 2.67; NO-PRINT if the sentence is dropped
NASS Crop Production, Oct 9 (October 1 hay forecast — verified to exist in the Oct 2023 and Oct 2024 reports)
#
Cluster
Item
Anchor
Adj
Point
Range
Reasoning
39
C
CO alfalfa production, Oct 1 forecast (1,000 tons)
2,244 (Aug 1 print)
−44
2,200
1,472–2,928
NASS usually carries acreage; Aug–Sep heat and the Fort Lyon shutoff trim late cuttings; ±728 is the production family floor; NO-PRINT if the Oct report carries no hay table (check two ways)
Scoring protocol
Unchanged (frozen 2026-08-08, predictions-2026-08-13.md §protocol): HIT / NEAR (numeric: within 5% of nearest edge; categorical: adjacent label) / MISS / NO-PRINT. Conditional rows (#30, #31) grade NO-PRINT if the condition never occurs across their window. Clusters: A: #28, #29, #30, #33 · B: #31, #35 · C: #32, #34, #36–39. Scores come from scripts/scorecard.py. Rows are never edited after release. Source specs for every row are in data/current/prediction_sources.json at this commit (rows #33–35 auto-grade via grade_predictions.py, month pinned to SEPTEMBER; the rest grade by hand against the cited lines and are verified by --check).