Late-August 2026 Hay Report

August 27, 2026

Basis: SE Colorado Good/Premium commercial large-square alfalfa, completed FOB-farm trades, $/ton · Supersedes: the Aug 18 grid · Method: two independent analyses of the same data (research/13 v2 and research/14) were run and cross-audited; this report is the merged official view. Verification table: research/13 §10; dissenting detail: research/14.

Bottom line

USDA printed the first SE Colorado farm-gate alfalfa trade of the grading era: 88 tons of Good/Premium 3x4 at $325/ton FOB-farm (new crop, 1st cut). It is real — the PDF was re-downloaded, hash-matched, text-extracted, and read visually. It is not proof the long-standing $250 ask "converted": USDA doesn't identify sellers, and the lot is 12 tons under our frozen 100-ton observability bar, so August stays formally ungraded.

The trade is not isolated. After corrected freight ($0.153/ton-mile; two distance errors fixed), premium hay cannot be brought into Bent County for less than ~$272 (stale Kansas dairy) to $305–335 (everything fresh):

Commercial Good/Premium hay is worth about $295–310 today. Winter estimate: $300–335, plateau December–February, no exact peak month claimed. Honest single-month uncertainty: ±$65/ton — our own measured error, and every band below carries it in full.

Report card

Standing score from the pre-registered August predictions: 2 of 10 two-sided numeric ranges contained the outcome (+1 NEAR); the economically central cluster went 0-for-3. Nothing new was mechanically gradeable this cycle — the July state prices that grade rows #14–16 release August 31, by script.

Stress test of every forecast vintage against this week's $325 print (not formal grades — the lot is under the 100-ton bar and differs in crop age):

Four same-direction failures is a bias. Named causes, fixed this cycle: anchor drag (grids anchored on the state average, which publishes 8 weeks stale at $210, while cash cleared our mids every cycle — now anchored on completed trades); basis mixing (asks, small stable lots, delivered dairy, and FOB-farm were compared too freely — the target is now defined as completed FOB-farm commercial trades only); and a pipeline defect (the rainfall fetcher silently truncated 2026 data, biasing the statistical model $30 low — repaired, model anchor now ~$259 statewide). Two internal-audit corrections also published: two freight distances were wrong (Oklahoma 175→265 mi; the New Mexico price region 330→~600 mi), and the national benchmark decline was −4.6%, not −3%.

Eleven predictions for the September releases are frozen with machine-readable grading specs, each numeric row recording its mechanical anchor and judgment adjustment separately — so the judgment layer itself becomes gradeable.

The forecast

Where the two analyses disagreed, the mid splits them and the note says so. All bands are the full ±$65 calibration floor.

How it was built: (1) spot, measured — the completed-trade complex centers at $295–310 for commercially useful quality; (2) seasonal shape, from our own 2015–2025 data — winter lifts are small (+12–17% in the two tightest drought years, ~flat otherwise), drought-year peaks arrive late (Feb–Jun), post-peak declines are slow (~$35 over six months in 2023); (3) the two judgment layers — one weights the verified cash complex and drought-year persistence (Sep $310, peak $335 Feb–Mar), the other weights basis mismatch and import response (Sep $295, plateau $310 Nov–Jan). Neither can be separated by current evidence; mids split them. Late 2027 is the widest disagreement (sticky ~$255 vs normalized ~$195) and the least decision-relevant.

Moves the forecast down: no comparable SE trade while regional volume grows below $285; pasture recovery after the late-August rain; Kansas/Nebraska import volume compressing delivered parity; weaker dairy/feedlot economics; Dec 1 basin snowpack ≥100% of median. Moves it up: a completed SE FOB-farm trade ≥100 t near/above $325; the OK/TX/KS re-dry persisting into fall; imports failing to arrive; early snowpack below 75%.

For a seller holding hay

Quality is worth more than timing. Value tiers, FOB-stack:

• Test and weigh first. The spread between tested and untested is $30+/ton — the cheapest money in this report.
• Reject $180/ton unless the stack has real defects.
• Sell a meaningful portion now. The expected mid-path gain to the winter plateau is ~$15–20; the uncertainty around it is ±$65. A firm $290+ bid on tested Good/Premium justifies selling at least half.
• Exit rules, absolute: Dec 1 basin snowpack at/above normal → sell everything by Christmas. Never hold past the Feb 1, 2027 reading. These are inventory rules, not price predictions.

Conditions behind the price

• Demand: Colorado pasture 64% poor/very-poor (national 50%, year-worst); OK drought index 300→323 in a week, TX 136→182, KS 118→139; Oklahoma's report: "demand for hay is high… cattle producers are calling all hay producers"; Nebraska's: out-of-state buyers bidding, sellers fearing no hay to buy "after the new year." Feedlot inventories +2% with record-low July placements and marketings; Dec corn at a contract high ($5.36½); diesel $5.652.
• Counterweights: milk futures fell ~$1 in ten days (Sep $16.34); feeders sold off as the Douglas, AZ border reopened to Mexican cattle Aug 24 after the 15-month screwworm closure; the national alfalfa benchmark fell 4.6% to ~$170 — nationally hay is getting cheaper, and Nebraska's 1,200-ton print is distant supply already arriving.
• Water: John Martin ~20,200 AF (~6% of pool), still draining; Pueblo 166,400 AF, decade-low. But 3.67" of August rain fell at Lamar Airport and the Fort Lyon Canal — dry on Aug 18 — restarted on storm flows (162 cfs posted; state telemetry showed 217–334 cfs). A finishing drink for third cuttings: August diversions total ~659 AF vs 11,136 in June.
• El Niño: weekly Niño-3.4 flat at +2.6/+2.7 for three weeks; 69% odds of the strongest event since 1950, unchanged; fall outlook leans wet for all of Colorado. No local snowpack probability is claimed — only the Dec 1 and Feb 1 readings count.

What we're watching

Aug 31 — USDA July prices grade #14–16 by script (frozen: CO alfalfa $220, range $212–230; the cash tape says miss risk is high-side again) · Sep 10 — AMS Colorado (a SE FOB-farm trade ≥100 t makes September the first observable month on the audit target) + CPC ENSO; together they grade #20–27 · ~Sep 30 — August prices grade #17–19 · Dec 1 / Feb 1 — the snowpack exits.

Method: two independent analyses were run on this cycle's data and audited against each other; disagreements are published, not averaged away silently (research/13 §10 has the claim-by-claim verification table; research/14 the dissenting case). Every cash number is a completed USDA AMS trade verified against the raw PDF; macro quotes confirmed on two sources; drought pulled twice through independent methods; freight from DAT and the 2026 Nebraska/Kansas custom-rate surveys with road-routed distances. Soft spots: the $325 print is one 88-ton lot; Kansas/New Mexico reports are two weeks stale; USGS streamflow was down; seasonal base rates come from the state series, not the local premium series; whether the McClave seller still holds hay is unverified. Raw snapshots: data/2026-08-27/.