Retro: August 2026 Hay Report
Grading: OPEN — first checkpoint Aug 12, 2026 (USDA production print) — original report: August 2026 Hay Report
Status: awaiting data. This retro fills in as the numbers land. The predictions are already frozen — written down and committed to a public git record before the releases, so the grading can't be fudged.
The checkpoints
| Date | Release | What it tests |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | USDA NASS Crop Production — first official 2026 hay forecast | Our production thesis: Colorado 2026 alfalfa crop ~1.5M tons final (−36%) |
| Aug 13, 2026 | AMS Colorado Direct Hay Report | The floor-rising thesis: does the $250 ask convert to a printed trade? |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion | The spring-2027 relief prior (very strong El Niño → fat snowpack) |
| Aug 31, 2026 | NASS Agricultural Prices (July) | The price bands themselves |
Headline pre-registered calls
- Colorado alfalfa production print: 1.75M tons (range 1.55–2.00M). Note this is not our final-crop estimate of 1.5M — in deteriorating drought years the August print historically runs ~15% high versus the eventual final (2022: printed 2.00M, finaled 1.77M). If the print lands ~1.7–1.8M and January finals near 1.5M, both the prediction and the thesis are right. If the print lands below 1.5M, our thesis was too optimistic — and we'll say so.
- SE Colorado 3x4 alfalfa trade prints at $250 (range $240–260).
- Premium small-lot channel $300 (range $285–315).
- Colorado alfalfa July state price $220 (range $212–230).
- El Niño: Advisory continues, "very strong" winter odds ~85%.
The full 16-row prediction sheet with ranges, reasoning, and the fixed scoring protocol (HIT / NEAR / MISS / NO-PRINT, cluster weighting, no cherry-picked headline accuracy number) is on the predictions page.
Results
Filled from the actual releases after August 12, with the source line cited for every grade.