April 2026 Forecast & Watchlist
Written: 2026-04-18
This is my honest best-guess price path for SE Colorado Premium large-square alfalfa, along with the signals to watch that will tell us whether we land on the low end or the high end. Prices are $/ton, ex-stack SE Colorado.
The headline forecast
LOW AVG HIGH notes 2026-05 May $175 $210 $240 2026-06 Jun $185 $225 $260 2026-07 Jul $195 $235 $275 2026-08 Aug $205 $235 $275 ← near-term peak 2026-09 Sep $205 $240 $285 2026-10 Oct $210 $250 $295 2026-11 Nov $215 $260 $305 2026-12 Dec $220 $270 $315 2027-01 Jan $220 $275 $320 2027-02 Feb $210 $280 $330 ← snowpack verdict week 2027-03 Mar $205 $285 $340 ← peak spring carryover 2027-04 Apr $200 $280 $340 2027-05 May $185 $260 $330 ← first 2027 cutting 2027-06 Jun $175 $240 $315 2027-07 Jul $165 $220 $295 2027-08 Aug $160 $205 $280 2027-09 Sep $155 $195 $270 2027-10 Oct $155 $190 $265
Reading the shape:
- Rising wedge May 2026 – Feb 2027. Supply damage hardens with each dry month; carryover scarcity compounds; drought premium builds.
- Maximum uncertainty Feb–Apr 2027. This is the verdict window for the 2026–27 snowpack. The low column drops sharply (relief rally) while the high column keeps climbing (two-year drought scenario).
- Reversion in summer/fall 2027. New 2027 crop either arrives normally (price falls toward pre-drought ~$180–200) or confirms drought-two (price stays $250+). Averages weighted ~60/40 toward relief.
How these numbers differ from the v2 model
The forecast_prices_v2.py model (backtest MAE $22/ton) produces a mid-forecast of roughly $163 → $225 from May 2026 to Jan 2027. My averages above are $210 → $275 — consistently $30–50/ton higher.
Three reasons I adjusted up:
- The model was trained on 2015–2024, where the worst drought year had Arkansas basin SWE around 60–70% of normal. 2026 is at 9%. The model extrapolates linearly past its training distribution, but physical hay supply curves go vertical in genuine scarcity.
- Regional substitution has collapsed. TX+OK DSCI is at 282 simultaneously with a gone Upper Arkansas snowpack. The model treats txok_dsci as one smooth coefficient; it doesn't model the regime shift where southern-plains dairies start bidding into SE Colorado.
- The model holds macros flat forward. If Iran/Brent pushes diesel from $5.62 to $6.25+, add another $10–15/ton via trucking and on-farm fuel.
The model is honest within its training range. My deltas are reasoned, not backtested — see the "what I can and can't defend" section below.
Confidence by window
| Window | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 ($215–275 band) | High | 2026 physical supply is mostly locked in now — too late for summer rain to fully rescue it. |
| Nov 2026 – Jan 2027 ($250–320) | Medium | Carryover math gets clearer; depends on how aggressively dairies contract early. |
| Feb–May 2027 ($200–340) | Low | One number — winter snowpack — swings this window by $100+/ton. |
| Summer–fall 2027 ($155–295) | Low-medium | Path-dependent on the preceding winter; both paths plausible. |
What I can and can't defend about the rainfall-price relationship
The v2 model as a whole backtests at $22/ton MAE. My specific scenario sensitivities (e.g. "wet 2026–27 winter → −$40 to −$60 on spring 2027") are reasoning, not a rigorous backtest on analogous cases.
What the annual data actually shows:
year GS rain Apr SWE avg $/ton what happened 2018 8.6 4.3 204 DRY → +$40 ✓ rain-down-price-up works 2023 13.4 9.2 265 WET → +$39 ✗ breaks simple thesis 2024 7.9 11.7 206 DRY → -$59 ✗ breaks simple thesis 2025 10.3 6.4 164 DRY → -$42 ✗
"More rain this year → lower price this year" is not clean at annual resolution. Model coefficients confirm it: rain_anom coefficient is +0.20, swe_anom is +0.28 — both practically zero. lag1_price (+0.96) swallows the short-term momentum. Water relief works on a multi-year delay.
The single best historical precedent for "water abundance kills price": 2024. April SWE at 11.7" (above normal) after the 2022–23 drought spike knocked Colorado alfalfa from $265 → $206 in one year — −$60/ton on one good snowpack year. That's the one data point anchoring my spring-2027 low-end scenario.
Counter-evidence: 2023 had decent snowpack and rain, yet prices surged +$39. Why? Because the 2022 damage + macro shock were still in the system.
The honest takeaway: a summer thunderstorm will not crush the price. The input that historically has moved prices sharply downward is a full above-normal winter snowpack.
Watchlist — what to check to know low-end vs high-end
Tier 1 — The big three (these carry most of the forecast uncertainty)
| Signal | Source | Low-end trigger | High-end trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026–27 Arkansas basin SWE (Dec–Feb) | NRCS SNOTEL basin index | >110% of median by Feb 1 → spring 2027 collapses toward $200 | <75% = two-year drought confirmed → Apr 2027 pushes $320+ |
| Summer 2026 monsoon (Jul–Aug rain) | Las Animas + Lamar COOP cumulative | >6" combined → 2nd/3rd cuttings rescued, Aug drops into low $200s | <3" = one-cutting year locked → Aug pushes $270+ |
| TX + OK drought DSCI | USDM weekly | Drops <150 = regional pull evaporates | Stays >250 = Panhandle dairies keep bidding |
Tier 2 — Cost-push macros (FRED series)
| Signal | FRED series | Low trigger | High trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| US retail diesel | GASDESW | <$4.50 | >$6.00 (Iran/Brent shock) |
| Nitrogenous fertilizer PPI | WPU0652013A | <120 | >160 sustained |
| Global corn $/mt | PMAIZMTUSDM | <$180 | >$250 (feed-grain competition) |
Tier 3 — Local reality checks (lower Arkansas Valley)
| Signal | Source | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Fort Lyon Canal flow | USGS site 07122100 | Avg summer cfs <40% of prior year = neighbors short on water |
| John Martin storage | USACE morning report | Drops below 30k AF = lower-basin crisis intensifies |
| Active Div 2 river calls | CDSS Division 2 dashboard | Drops <15 = improving; stuck at 25+ = tight |
| ENSO state | NOAA CPC monthly | La Niña persisting = dry SW bias; El Niño emerging = relief |
How to actually use the watchlist
- Weekly (Mondays): Diesel (GASDESW), USDM, Div 2 call count. 30-second check.
- Monthly: NRCS Arkansas basin SWE, NASS monthly hay prices, corn + fert PPI.
- Operational:
scripts/update_weekly.shrefreshes most of these and regeneratesdashboard.html. Dashboard Panel 3 (features vs climatology) is exactly this watchlist in live form.
If I had to watch just one number
Arkansas basin SWE on February 1, 2027. That one reading has more signal than all the others combined for whether spring-2027 carryover trades at $205 or $340.
Cross-references
data/historical/combined_monthly.csv— model (not my-adjusted) forecast, columnsforecast_low/mid/high.data/historical/forecast_history.csv— week-over-week log of the model's forecast for each target month (built up byupdate_weekly.sh).dashboard.html— live visualization: price panel, forecast-drift panel, features-vs-climatology panel.INDEX.md"Key numbers to watch" table — live readings of most Tier 1/3 signals.